The Finishing Line Changes the Question

One sprint left changes the question.

Earlier in a quarter, asking whether something is broadly on track can be useful. Near the end, it gets much less comfortable and much more specific: what are we actually going to finish?

I've been thinking about Wacky Races again. This time, less about Dick Dastardly and more about the finishing line. Everyone in the cartoon is technically in the same race. They are absolutely not all equally likely to finish it.

There is an organisational version of that. A team can have a plan, milestones, Jira tickets, governance and a reassuring shade of green. None of those things, on their own, tell you whether the outcome will actually land. As the finishing line gets closer, confidence comes from the evidence underneath: what remains, how much time is left, what could genuinely stop us, and whether somebody is actually dealing with it.

That connects to a longer piece of thinking I've been updating on delivery confidence. My first attempt used six weighted factors. It was thorough, but thoroughness has a cost. Six fresh judgement calls for every milestone at every review is a model that either gets used inconsistently or ends up living in one person's head.

The simpler version uses two inputs: progress against plan, and categorised risk and issue exposure. Add the evidence maturity and the direction of travel, and it becomes much harder to hide a weakening position inside the same old colour.

Lesson learned

The closer the finishing line gets, the less useful it is to ask what colour the work is. Ask what would stop it crossing the line.